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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep middle to 8-E.Moore (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.19 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -1.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EP