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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku ran ob at CIN 47 for 12 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP