Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to CIN 27, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.53 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model