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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

WAS
72.4%
NO
27.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to WAS: Jake Haener (NO) -0.248 vs Jayden Daniels (WAS) +0.165 EPA/dropback (NO starting Jake Haener in place of Derek Carr; WAS starting Jayden Daniels in place of Marcus Mariota)
  • WAS offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • WAS on 7 more days rest than NO
  • NO offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jake Haener (NO) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

WAS 25
–
NO 18
Projected margin: WAS by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

WAS

Noah Brown WR Out kidney
Tyler Biadasz C Questionable Illness
Daron Payne DT Questionable Back
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Calf
Zane Gonzalez K Questionable Left Foot

NO

D'Marco Jackson LB Out Ankle
Bub Means WR Out Ankle
Derek Carr QB Doubtful Left Hand
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
NO 19

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:39 TD WAS (5:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 05:43 TD WAS (5:43) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NO 0
  • Q3 08:15 FG WAS (8:15) 46-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 17 – NO 0
  • Q3 05:53 TD NO (5:53) 11-C.Wilson pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – NO 6
  • Q4 15:00 FG WAS (15:00) 46-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 20 – NO 7
  • Q4 11:13 FG NO (11:13) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. WAS 20 – NO 10
  • Q4 07:02 FG NO (7:02) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. WAS 20 – NO 13
  • Q4 00:03 TD NO (:03) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – NO 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 39%

    (1:54) 43-M.Hayball punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:48) 43-M.Hayball punts 47 yards to WAS 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 29 for 2 yards (36-R.Payton).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:00) 43-M.Hayball punts 52 yards to WAS 2, impetus ends at WAS 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (8:15) 46-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (15:00) 46-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 16 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 90%

    (11:13) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (8:19) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to NO 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 18 for 2 yards (82-B.Sinnott). PENALTY on NO-36-R.Payton, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 16.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 76%

    (7:02) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:40) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels right guard to WAS 46 for 1 yard (93-N.Shepherd).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 70%

    (2:00) 46-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).