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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 14 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 46-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP