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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 43-M.Hayball punts 52 yards to WAS 2, impetus ends at WAS 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.68 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model