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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 23

Washington Commanders 17 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 46-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model