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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 10 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model