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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 13 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.99 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP