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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 43-M.Hayball punts 47 yards to WAS 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 29 for 2 yards (36-R.Payton).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model