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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 53

Washington Commanders 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to NO 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-D.Pettis pushed ob at NO 18 for 2 yards (82-B.Sinnott). PENALTY on NO-36-R.Payton, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model