Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- PIT defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
PIT
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:00 FG PHI (10:00) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PIT 0 – PHI 3
- Q1 03:46 FG PIT (3:46) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – PHI 3
- Q1 01:18 TD PHI (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – PHI 9
- Q2 09:11 TD PHI (9:11) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – PHI 16
- Q2 02:40 TD PIT (2:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – PHI 17
- Q2 00:42 FG PIT (:42) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 13 – PHI 17
- Q3 07:55 FG PHI (7:55) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PIT 13 – PHI 20
- Q4 14:20 TD PHI (14:20) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – PHI 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:37) 8-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to PHI 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%
(10:00) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:28) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to PHI 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 21 for 2 yards (42-J.Pierre; 28-M.Killebrew).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 18 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%
(3:46) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:52) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-C.DeJean to PIT 45 for 23 yards (49-J.Moon; 41-P.Wilson).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%
(:42) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 18 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%
(7:55) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%
(10:40) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at PHI 6.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 30 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 80%
(4:04) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PIT 28 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward; 39-M.Fitzpatrick).