Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(13:52) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-C.DeJean to PIT 45 for 23 yards (49-J.Moon; 41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model