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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model