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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model