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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at PHI 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model