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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 8-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to PHI 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-15-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model