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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.88 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model