Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Caleb Williams (CHI): -0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- MIN defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- MIN offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
MIN
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:56 TD CHI (:56) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-85-C.Kmet was injured during the play. MIN 0 – CHI 6
- Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 7
- Q2 06:34 TD MIN (6:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 83-J.Nailor for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 13 – CHI 7
- Q2 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. MIN 14 – CHI 10
- Q3 12:45 FG MIN (12:45) 96-J.Romo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 17 – CHI 10
- Q3 01:26 TD MIN (1:26) 33-A.Jones right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – CHI 10
- Q4 07:26 TD CHI (7:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – CHI 16
- Q4 02:00 FG MIN (2:00) 96-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 27 – CHI 16
- Q4 00:29 TD CHI (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – CHI 22
- Q4 00:03 FG CHI (:03) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. MIN 27 – CHI 27
- Q5 02:13 FG MIN (2:13) 96-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 30 – CHI 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 26 for 13 yards (30-T.Moore).
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Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 38 for 14 yards (30-T.Moore). PENALTY on MIN-30-C.Ham, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(5:21) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-J.McQuaide, downed by MIN-6-B.Asamoah. PENALTY on CHI-44-N.Sewell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 80%
(9:39) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-J.Tillery), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor, RECOVERED by MIN-6-B.Asamoah at MIN 25. 6-B.Asamoah to MIN 47 for 22 yards (76-T.Jenkins).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 27 for 12 yards (92-D.Hardy).
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Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EPp(convert) 72%
(3:17) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%
(:03) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 84%
(10:11) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:07) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Carter to CHI 36 for 5 yards (11-T.Sherfield).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 52%
(8:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 34%
(4:20) 17-R.Wright punts 36 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Carter MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 13, RECOVERED by MIN-98-B.Richter at CHI 15.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 35 for 10 yards (80-C.Johnson).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%
(12:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Hockenson (6-K.Gordon).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%
(8:39) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles right end ran ob at MIN 13 for 7 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy).
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 7 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(2:00) 96-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 33 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 74%
(1:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to MIN 19 for 14 yards (24-C.Bynum; 7-B.Murphy).