4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(12:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Hockenson (6-K.Gordon).

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.41 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model