4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 69

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 27 for 12 yards (92-D.Hardy).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model