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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 27
Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17
What Actually Happened
(10:11) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.
The Three Options
GO
+1.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.64 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
KICK
+1.07 EP
- 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
