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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 66

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 35 for 10 yards (80-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model