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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 96-J.Romo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.25 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP