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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 17-R.Wright punts 36 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Carter MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 13, RECOVERED by MIN-98-B.Richter at CHI 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP