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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Carter to CHI 36 for 5 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model