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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NE
35.2%
TEN
64.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Mason Rudolph (TEN) -0.029 vs Drake Maye (NE) -0.096 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 17
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NE

Alex Austin CB Questionable Ankle
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Christian Elliss LB Questionable Abdomen
Michael Jordan G Questionable Ankle
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Ankle
Drake Maye QB Questionable Concussion
Jaquelin Roy DT Questionable Neck
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee

TEN

Andrew Rupcich T Out Triceps
L'Jarius Sneed CB Out Quadricep
Tyjae Spears RB Out Hamstring
Tre Avery CB Questionable Hamstring
Tyler Boyd WR Questionable Shoulder
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Foot
Dillon Radunz T Questionable Foot
T'Vondre Sweat DT Questionable Hip
Amani Hooker S Questionable Groin
Will Levis QB Questionable Right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 17
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:24 TD TEN (10:24) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 84-N.Vannett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 07:18 FG NE (7:18) 13-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – TEN 7
  • Q3 07:43 TD NE (7:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – TEN 7
  • Q3 00:36 FG TEN (:36) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. NE 10 – TEN 10
  • Q4 04:32 TD TEN (4:32) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – TEN 16
  • Q4 00:04 TD NE (:04) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [37-A.Hooker]. NE 16 – TEN 17
  • Q5 02:34 FG TEN (2:34) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. NE 17 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (7:08) 13-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 48%

    (4:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:23) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to NE 3, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-M.Jones to NE 47 for 44 yards (80-B.Oliver).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%

    (7:18) 13-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (1:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 36 yards to NE 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 15 yards to TEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:36) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to TEN 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-53-C.Elliss. PENALTY on TEN-39-D.Baker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 26.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

    (10:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to NE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to TEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 13 for 6 yards (27-M.Dial). FUMBLES (27-M.Dial), and recovers at TEN 14.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to NE 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at 50 for 25 yards (52-J.Williams).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to TEN 5 for 10 yards (37-A.Hooker; 44-M.Brown).