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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 3

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.50 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP