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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to NE 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at 50 for 25 yards (52-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model