Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 7 – New England Patriots 0

(1:23) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to NE 3, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-M.Jones to NE 47 for 44 yards (80-B.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.29 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model