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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to TEN 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model