Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 71

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to TEN 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-53-C.Elliss. PENALTY on TEN-39-D.Baker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model