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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to NE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP