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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 63

New England Patriots 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 15 yards to TEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.43 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model