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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

DAL
34.1%
ATL
65.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): +0.156 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
ATL 27
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DAL

Daron Bland CB Out Foot
Micah Parsons DE Out Ankle
Jordan Phillips DT Out Wrist
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Calf
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Linval Joseph DT Questionable Back
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Shoulder
Zack Martin G Questionable Shoulder

ATL

J.D. Bertrand LB Out Concussion
Ruke Orhorhoro DE Out Ankle
Troy Andersen LB Questionable Knee
Drew Dalman C Questionable Ankle
Chris Lindstrom G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 21
–
ATL 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 FG DAL (9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 05:27 TD ATL (5:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 08:34 TD ATL (8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – ATL 13
  • Q2 04:11 TD DAL (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – ATL 14
  • Q3 10:29 TD ATL (10:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – ATL 20
  • Q3 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – ATL 21
  • Q4 11:15 TD ATL (11:15) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – ATL 27
  • Q4 01:32 TD DAL (1:32) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – ATL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:11) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to DAL 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 46, Center-44-T.Sieg. 26-A.Williams to DAL 49 for 5 yards (18-D.Clark).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 54%

    (1:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney to DAL 33 for 10 yards (21-C.Carson).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%

    (11:26) 88-C.Lamb right end to ATL 47 for -3 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%

    (8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to DAL 5, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 23 for 18 yards (26-A.Williams; 89-C.Woerner).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:15) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass incomplete short right to 29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:55) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 1, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-18-D.Clark.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to DAL 39, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 64%

    (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:29) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to DAL 28, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 44 for 16 yards (35-N.Brooks).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (5:26) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin (20-D.Alford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to DAL 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 14 for 3 yards (35-N.Brooks).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 9-K.Turpin to ATL 43 for 22 yards (24-A.Terrell) [17-A.Ebiketie]. ATL-24-A.Terrell was injured during the play.