Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- ATL defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Kirk Cousins (ATL): +0.156 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DAL defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- DAL offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 9
DAL
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:36 FG DAL (9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – ATL 0
- Q1 05:27 TD ATL (5:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – ATL 6
- Q2 08:34 TD ATL (8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – ATL 13
- Q2 04:11 TD DAL (4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – ATL 14
- Q3 10:29 TD ATL (10:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 34-R.McCloud for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – ATL 20
- Q3 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – ATL 21
- Q4 11:15 TD ATL (11:15) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – ATL 27
- Q4 01:32 TD DAL (1:32) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – ATL 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:11) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to DAL 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%
(9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 46, Center-44-T.Sieg. 26-A.Williams to DAL 49 for 5 yards (18-D.Clark).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 54%
(1:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney to DAL 33 for 10 yards (21-C.Carson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%
(11:26) 88-C.Lamb right end to ATL 47 for -3 yards (55-K.Elliss).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%
(8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(1:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to DAL 5, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 23 for 18 yards (26-A.Williams; 89-C.Woerner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 57Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 40%
(:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(13:15) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass incomplete short right to 29-C.Goodwin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(7:55) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 1, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-18-D.Clark.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 59%
(4:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to DAL 39, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 64%
(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:29) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 14, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(8:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to DAL 28, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 44 for 16 yards (35-N.Brooks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 31Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%
(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Turpin (20-D.Alford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to DAL 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 14 for 3 yards (35-N.Brooks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 65 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:51) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 9-K.Turpin to ATL 43 for 22 yards (24-A.Terrell) [17-A.Ebiketie]. ATL-24-A.Terrell was injured during the play.
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