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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 9-K.Turpin to ATL 43 for 22 yards (24-A.Terrell) [17-A.Ebiketie]. ATL-24-A.Terrell was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model