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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-D.Mooney for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.03 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model