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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 44
Dallas Cowboys 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7
What Actually Happened
(11:26) 88-C.Lamb right end to ATL 47 for -3 yards (55-K.Elliss).
The Three Options
GO
+1.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.72 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.67 EP
KICK
-0.90 EP
- 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
- 49% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT
-0.85 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
