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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to DAL 11, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 14 for 3 yards (35-N.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model