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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 87

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ATL 46, Center-44-T.Sieg. 26-A.Williams to DAL 49 for 5 yards (18-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model