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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.05 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model