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Arizona Cardinals

4-4 HC Jonathan Gannon
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Miami Dolphins

2-5 HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2024-10-27 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ARI
60.1%
MIA
39.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.213 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Tim Boyle (MIA): -0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22 15–29
–
MIA 18 11–25
Projected margin: ARI by 4 Projected total: 40

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

ARI

Roy Lopez DT Out Ankle
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Out Neck
Darius Robinson DT Out Not injury related - personal matter
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Groin

MIA

Kader Kohou CB Out Neck
Zach Sieler DT Out Eye
Storm Duck CB Doubtful Ankle
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Foot
Tua Tagovailoa QB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 28
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 TD MIA (10:17) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 01:21 FG MIA (1:21) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ARI 0 – MIA 10
  • Q2 11:37 TD ARI (11:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – MIA 10
  • Q2 00:18 FG MIA (:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ARI 7 – MIA 13
  • Q3 11:48 FG ARI (11:48) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – MIA 13
  • Q3 08:35 TD MIA (8:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – MIA 19
  • Q3 06:22 SAF ARI (6:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 9, touched at MIA -1, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa, Illegal Bat, declined. ARI 12 – MIA 20
  • Q3 02:18 TD ARI (2:18) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 18 – MIA 20
  • Q4 12:26 TD MIA (12:26) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 18 – MIA 26
  • Q4 08:50 TD ARI (8:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 28 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to MIA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 25 for 19 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 44-O.Pappoe).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%

    (1:21) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-M.Overton, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

    (3:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to MIA 5, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 56%

    (11:48) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 13 for 6 yards (44-O.Pappoe, 20-D.Dallas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 32%

    (5:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to ARI 11, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →