Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(9:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.98 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model