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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model