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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to MIA 5, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP