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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 25 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(:01) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +1.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model