Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(9:31) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to MIA 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 25 for 19 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.28 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model