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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer. 83-M.Washington to MIA 13 for 6 yards (44-O.Pappoe, 20-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model