Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 27 – Arizona Cardinals 25

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to ARI 11, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.15 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.35 EP

KICK -1.15 EP

32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model