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Los Angeles Chargers

3-3 HC Jim Harbaugh
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

3-4 HC Jonathan Gannon
Monday 2024-10-21 · 21:00 ET State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

LAC
44.8%
ARI
55.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 22 15–29
–
ARI 23 16–30
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

LAC

Deane Leonard CB Out Hamstring
Joey Bosa DE Doubtful Hip
Hayden Hurst TE Doubtful Groin
Quentin Johnston WR Doubtful Ankle
Simi Fehoko WR Questionable Shoulder
D.J. Chark WR Questionable Groin
Derius Davis WR Questionable Hamstring
Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Hamstring
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Hips
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Questionable Fibula

ARI

Owen Pappoe LB Out Hip
Darius Robinson DT Out Calf
Trey Benson RB Questionable Illness
Christian Jones T Questionable Ankle
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Ankle
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Neck
Kyzir White LB Questionable Knee
Garrett Williams CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 15
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:04 FG LAC (12:04) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – ARI 0
  • Q2 05:44 TD ARI (5:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 4-G.Dortch for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – ARI 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG LAC (:03) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – ARI 7
  • Q3 00:43 FG LAC (:43) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 9 – ARI 7
  • Q4 14:26 TD ARI (14:26) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – ARI 13
  • Q4 12:13 FG LAC (12:13) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 12 – ARI 14
  • Q4 01:58 FG LAC (1:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 15 – ARI 14
  • Q4 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. LAC 15 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 89-J.Reagor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (4:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

    (12:04) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (4:08) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:52) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (:03) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 18 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 46%

    (10:34) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to ARI 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-43-T.Dye. ARI-45-D.Gardeck was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 49%

    (6:08) 15-C.Tune up the middle to LAC 45 for no gain (93-O.Ogbonnia; 52-K.Mack).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (:43) 11-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%

    (12:13) 11-C.Dicker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%

    (10:13) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (4:10) 68-J.Salyer reported in as eligible. 28-H.Haskins up the middle to ARI 28 for 2 yards (43-J.Luketa).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 91%

    (1:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →